TRACE Unveils When To Short The S&P 500

Want to catch SPX Reversals in Real Time?

Pro trader and SpotGamma content contributor Doug Pless executed a precision short trade on December 10, 2024, leveraging SPX/ES Gamma dynamics and real-time flow data. This case study walks through how multiple SpotGamma tools, including TRACE Heatmaps, HIRO, and Equity Hub were used to build a bearish thesis, confirm the reversal in real time, and manage the trade to a key pin level at 6035.

Doug’s setup blended positional Gamma shifts with intraday flow confirmation and delivered a clean intraday short in the S&P 500 via ES futures.

Author:  Doug Pless
Professional Trader & SpotGamma Content Contributor

The Setup	The Tools	The Execution	The Payoff
• Market: S&P 500 (SPX / ES Futures) • Trade Type: Intraday short • Bias: Bearish, due to Put Wall and Vol Trigger shifting lower • Volatility: Moderate, with falling Gamma Index • Thesis: Price would reverse downward after failed upside, creating downside vulnerability toward the 6035 pin zone	TRACE Gamma Heatmap • Revealed negative gamma pocket above 6055 • Highlighted reduced market stability and downside risk Equity Hub • Identified lowered Put Wall and Vol Trigger • Framed downside targets and risk zones HIRO • Confirmed real-time bearish flow • Put buying and call selling signaled dealer hedging pressure to the downside	• Entry Trigger: Rejection near 6055 resistance • Confirmation: HIRO Flow Alert (~12:35 PM ET) revealed aggressive put buying • Execution: Short initiated after Delta Pressure flipped negative • Trade Management: Multiple pullback entries allowed as downside momentum accelerated	• Target Zone: SPX 6035 (TRACE Charm pin) • Result: SPX closed at 6034.91 — exact pin hit • Exit: Covered into pinning zone between buy/sell liquidity bands • Outcome: Clean, high-conviction intraday short aligned with gamma mechanics

• Bearish Gamma Shift: Put Wall & Vol Trigger moved lower, signaling downside setup.
• Real-Time Flow Confirmation: HIRO Flow Alert revealed put buying and call selling before the reversal lower.
• Delta Pressure Validated Reversal: Options flow showed that downward pressure emerging above key 6055 resistance.
• Pin Target Nailed: TRACE Charm indicated 6035 pin—SPX closed at 6034.91.

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