Earnings Expected Moves This Week: META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN (July 27–31, 2026)
Updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 — refreshed weekly during earnings season
Four of the Magnificent 7 report earnings within 48 hours this week, and the options market is pricing large moves: Meta ~7%, Microsoft ~6%, Amazon ~6%, and Apple ~4%. The expected move for each stock is derived from the at-the-money straddle for the first expiration after its report — the same calculation behind SpotGamma’s free Implied Earnings Moves tool. And this is no ordinary earnings week: the FOMC decision lands Wednesday before Microsoft and Meta report, advance Q2 GDP prints Thursday morning ahead of Apple and Amazon, and Core PCE closes the week Friday.
This Week at a Glance
| Date | Macro Events | Earnings (after close) | Implied Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, July 29 | FOMC rate decision + Powell presser | Microsoft (MSFT) Meta (META) |
~6% ~7% |
| Thu, July 30 | Advance Q2 GDP | Apple (AAPL) Amazon (AMZN) |
~4% ~6% |
| Fri, July 31 | Core PCE inflation | — | — |
Implied moves are approximate, based on ATM straddle pricing as of Monday, and will change as the events approach — check the live tool for current pricing on these and 100+ other names reporting this week.
Why This Week Is Unusual: Macro and Micro Collide
Normally, an earnings straddle isolates company-specific risk. This week it can’t: Wednesday’s straddles on MSFT and META span the FOMC decision and their own reports, while Thursday’s AAPL and AMZN expirations capture GDP and bleed into Friday’s Core PCE. Traders comparing this week’s implied moves to past quarters should recognize that part of the premium is macro risk, not just earnings risk.
The setup comes amid a dispersion unwind. Heading into the week, the S&P 500 had just logged a 1.2% down session — the Mag 7 basket’s worst day since April 2025 — and one-month implied correlation (COR1M) collapsed below 8, an extreme divergence between index and single-stock volatility. When correlation is this low, single-stock earnings shocks can transmit into the index in ways that quiet weeks don’t, because dealers’ index hedges and single-name hedges are pulling in different directions. Our full breakdown is in Big Tech Earnings and FOMC Collide.
What to Watch: Name by Name
Microsoft (MSFT) — Wednesday after close, ~6% implied move
The most interesting positioning setup of the four. Dealers are meaningfully short gamma to the upside in MSFT, which means a beat that pushes the stock higher could force dealers to chase — accelerating the move rather than dampening it. Key levels: 390 and 430 to the upside, with 360 as the Gamma Flip — below that, dealer hedging flips from stabilizing to destabilizing. Fundamentally, the market wants the Azure growth number and any change in the AI capex trajectory: with the AI-unwind debate running all summer, guidance on spending discipline may matter more than the quarter itself. And remember MSFT reports just two hours after Powell’s press conference ends — the tape it reports into is itself an unknown.
Meta (META) — Wednesday after close, ~7% implied move
The largest implied move of the four majors. META shares the same broad positioning shape as the group — positive, supportive gamma below current prices and negative gamma above — which sets up squeeze potential on an upside surprise. Watch ad-revenue growth as the core demand signal, engagement and monetization of AI features, and — as with Microsoft — the capex line. A 7% straddle prices a big number, but META has a history of realized moves exceeding 10% in both directions; sellers of this straddle are betting against a stock with one of the fattest earnings-move distributions in large-cap tech.
Apple (AAPL) — Thursday after close, ~4% implied move
The calmest pricing of the four, consistent with Apple’s historically smaller earnings reactions. Watch iPhone unit trends and China revenue, Services growth (the margin engine), and any commentary on AI feature rollout driving an upgrade cycle. The tighter straddle means the market sees Apple as a lower-variance event — which also means a surprise in either direction gets less cushion. Thursday morning’s GDP print sets the macro tone before Apple reports.
Amazon (AMZN) — Thursday after close, ~6% implied move
Priced nearly as hot as Microsoft. AWS growth and margins are the number one watch item — Amazon’s cloud results land a day after Azure’s, so the market will already have a read on cloud demand, and a divergence between the two would be a bigger story than either alone. Beyond AWS: retail margins, advertising growth, and capex guidance. Last week several major reports exceeded their implied moves, a caution flag for anyone reflexively selling this straddle.
The IV Crush Angle
Every one of these names will experience implied volatility crush after its report — the evaporation of the event premium once the uncertainty resolves. That’s the mechanism that punishes naive long-straddle buyers even when they’re right on direction, and rewards structures that isolate the post-event vol reset. If a stock moves less than its implied move, short-premium structures collect; if it moves more — as happened repeatedly last week — they’re the ones caught. For strategy specifics see how to trade the post-earnings IV crush, and for which names crush most reliably, our study of the 5 stocks with the most predictable earnings IV crush.
How to Read the Expected Move
The expected move is the options market’s consensus one-standard-deviation estimate of the stock’s swing through the event, derived from the at-the-money straddle on the first post-earnings expiration. A ~6% implied move on MSFT means the market prices roughly a two-thirds chance the stock lands within ±6% after reporting. It is not a directional forecast — it’s the size of the cone. Compare it against the stock’s own realized history: an implied move well above the historical average signals unusual uncertainty (or a macro event inside the window, like this week); one below average signals complacency.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expected move for a stock’s earnings?
The expected move is the price swing the options market implies for a stock through its earnings report, calculated from the at-the-money straddle expiring just after the event. It represents roughly a one-standard-deviation range, not a directional prediction.
Which big stocks report earnings this week (July 27–31, 2026)?
Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday, July 29 after the close — the same day as the FOMC decision. Apple and Amazon report Thursday, July 30 after the close, following the advance Q2 GDP print. Core PCE inflation data arrives Friday, July 31.
What are the implied earnings moves for META, MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN?
As of Monday, July 27, options price approximately a 7% move for Meta, 6% for Microsoft, 6% for Amazon, and 4% for Apple. These values shift daily as the events approach — SpotGamma’s free Implied Earnings Moves tool tracks them live.
Why are implied moves elevated this week?
Because the straddles span macro events as well as earnings: the FOMC decision falls on Microsoft and Meta’s report day, and GDP and Core PCE bracket Apple and Amazon’s. Part of the premium is macro risk, not company risk.
What is IV crush after earnings?
IV crush is the sharp drop in an option’s implied volatility immediately after earnings, once the binary uncertainty resolves. Option prices deflate even if the stock moves, which is why long options positions can lose money despite a correct directional call.
Track It Live
The numbers on this page are a Monday snapshot. Implied moves reprice continuously into the events — the free SpotGamma Implied Earnings Moves tool shows live straddle-implied moves for every major name reporting this week, and SpotGamma subscribers can see the full gamma positioning picture — including the levels where dealer hedging flips — on the SpotGamma dashboard.
