Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, joined CNBC Wednesday to discuss Nvidia’s earnings, Salesforce, and how options traders repositioned across bonds after comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent.
Nvidia Earnings Reach Into the Index
A single company’s earnings rarely threaten to reprice the entire S&P 500 options complex. Nvidia (NDVA) earnings hold that exact power: S&P 500 options carry an extra quarter point of expected movement for Thursday, the session after NVDA reports. Friday, which carries Jackson Hole, prices roughly half a point. One company’s results command half the volatility premium of a Federal Reserve event — highlighting how central NVDA has become to the entire market.
NVDA Implied Move Sits Between Two Averages
The options market price a ~5% move in Nvidia shares from Wednesday’s earnings report. Across the past eight quarters, average post-earnings movement has run closer to 7%, so the current premium prices less volatility than previously delivered. However, across the last two reports, average movement ran closer to 2.75%. Measured against recent quarters rather than the long run, 5% implied movement appears relatively rich.
The Derivatives Complex Surrounding One Ticker
803 US-listed ETFs hold Nvidia stock. Add single-stock leveraged products and the count climbs further. Nvidia also sits among the largest holdings in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, and currently serves as the largest stock with a market cap of $5 trillion. Hedging flows around one earnings report transmits through hundreds of wrappers into the wider US equity market. This is why SpotGamma watches the name largely as an index input rather than just a single stock.
Salesforce: Rich Premium Into Resistance
Salesforce options price a ~6% implied move from earnings, while realized moves held at 4% or less across the last several quarters. The stock trades near 210, the high of the past couple of months, which places price directly against resistance. Brent Kochuba expects limited movement out of the Salesforce report.
Bonds: Put Skew Gave Way After Bessent
Two weeks ago, TLT, HYG and LQD carried heavy put skew. Traders owned puts and positioned for lower ETF prices — higher rates — with long-term yields approaching multi-year highs. Since Treasury Secretary Bessent began talking rates lower, skew across those ETFs shifted to neutral and, in places, slightly bullish. TLT has climbed strongly as the threat of higher rates eased.
Gold and Bitcoin lean the opposite way. Both carry heavy call skew, and call prices in both have grown rich, which shows traders front-running lower rates.
We encourage traders to watch two things into the end of the week: whether the Nvidia options premium transforms into recent realized movement once results clear, and whether bond ETF skew holds its new neutral stance. Then on Friday, the clearing of the Jackson Hole event will help establish how the market is likely to trend.
Full segment on CNBC: Brent Kochuba: Nvidia is so important to the market and why we watch so closely