Last week, SPX tested the key gamma levels at 6,640 and 6,750 we highlighted in Monday’s Founder’s Note, marking a new all-time high with a close 6,716. The impact of the government shutdown starting on October 1 seems to have barely registered. On Tuesday, the massive JPM Collar rolled from the 6,505 strike to a new […]
SpotGamma Weekly
Market Braces for the Specter of Volatility Into October
Last week, SPX tagged fresh all-time highs near the 6,700 Call Wall before surrendering gains in a series of controlled selloffs down to as low as 6,580, finally closing the week at 6,644. The “Stock Up, Vol Up” system flashed warning signs mentioned in last Wednesday’s AM Founder’s Note. This dynamic represents a fundamental breakdown in the normal […]
S&P Remains Resilient – But For How Long?
The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,661, posting a 1% weekly gain as markets navigated through the highly anticipated FOMC. What made this week particularly noteworthy was the extreme complacency at its start: one-month realized volatility sat at a meager 8%, and implied volatility hit basement-level 5% for this past Monday. These are some of the […]
Zombie Market Faces a Triple Witching OPEX
The S&P 500 delivered a grinding week, closing at 6,584 on Friday and up 1.3% from Monday’s open of 6,498. The 6,505 JPM Collar call acted as a critical pivot, where previous resistance turned into support. We shared our zombie market thesis in our Founder’s Note on Monday morning: current positive dealer gamma – driven by extremely short-dated options […]
The Record-Setting 0DTE Showdown
The S&P 500 delivered a volatile week: Tuesday began with risk-off positioning and a negative gamma environment, evolving into Thursday’s explosive rally, finally culminating in Friday’s blowoff top. The result? SPX closed almost exactly where it started the week at 6,482. By Wednesday, 0DTE options hit a record-setting 70% of all options volume, keeping the market […]
Low Volatility Keeps S&P 500 in a Fragile Calm
This week saw the zombie market resume with suppressed volatility and a broader market remaining constrained by positive gamma. SPX closed the week at 6,460, grinding slightly higher throughout the week before the rug was pulled on Friday. NVIDIA earnings on Wednesday served as the pivotal moment that shaped both volatility patterns and the broader […]
The “Zombie Market” vs. NVDA Earnings
The sell-off last week exemplified a classic post-OPEX window of weakness, reinforced by Wednesday’s VIX expiration. With structural support somewhat removed, the market experienced a measured four-day decline from 6,455 to 6,345. Then, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday delivered exactly the dovish tone markets were hoping for, triggering a sharp reversal that saw the […]
Volatility Drought Persists Through OPEX
SPX ended the week at a major SpotGamma support level of 6,450, driven by a combination of volatility compression, stabilizing dealer hedging flows, and the power of large options positioning. This week followed the trajectory outlined in our Founder’s Note on Monday morning: a benign CPI reading sent volatility even lower, and the SPX rose from 6,360 […]
Market Drifts Through “Death Valley” Vols
The S&P 500 delivered a week that looked dramatic at times, but ended up just drifting slightly — closing up 1.8% after a wild ride. While volatility spiked early in the week from tariff deadlines and semiconductor earnings disappointments, IV quickly collapsed as 0DTE flows reasserted control. This vol crush became a self-reinforcing tailwind for […]
From “Zombie Market” to Vol Awakening
What a difference a week makes. The S&P 500 went from consistently hitting all-time highs with 6,450 touched on Wednesday to close Friday down 1.6% to 6,238.This dramatic shift from “zombie market” to spiking realized volatility exemplifies the need for protective puts and/or VIX calls as insurance, as we highlighted in the daily pre-market Founder’s Notes throughout […]