SPY forward IV prices Jackson Hole as a non-event, but CTAs are stretched short Treasuries and SPX gamma flips near 7780 — an asymmetric setup into Friday.
FOMC
Vol Sellers Shrug off a Hawkish Fed
Despite a hawkish Fed rattling equities midweek, the market easily and quickly retraced any lost ground by Thursday. With June OPEX now behind us and implied volatility reset toward recent lows, there is a soft feeling of “what’s next?” for the S&P 500 until earnings season ramps up next month. The June FOMC meeting on […]
Triple Witching + FOMC Fuels Volatility Risk
The market delivered several volatile sessions last week as traders navigated Wednesday’s CPI inflation report, Friday’s massive SpaceX IPO (SPCX), and a mix of Iran-driven headlines throughout. Last Sunday, we wrote about how extreme options positioning into major catalysts could spark the exact volatile market behavior observed over the past several days. Tuesday’s wild 200-point […]
How One Key Level Drove Last Week’s Rally
The S&P 500 bounced back 2% last week after scraping against 6-month lows. Mixed headlines on the Iran conflict explained much of this tug-of-war, yet markets are still holding their breath. For many traders, the rally felt counterintuitive: How can equities rally so furiously if geopolitical uncertainties remain unresolved? When looking at Tuesday’s major bounce in […]
After OPEX: Market Loses Its Shock Absorber
The options market has just cleared one of the largest structural events of the quarter, as Friday’s OPEX saw nearly $1.4 trillion in delta notional expire for the S&P 500. Because significant positions have now rolled off from the March expiration, the market has lost an important stabilizing force just as macro pressures begin to build. […]
March OPEX: Tipping Point or Turning Point?
Fragility, Risk, and Potential Vol Reset As the S&P 500 enters OPEX week, we echo the same theme of the past few weeks: this market remains fragile. Last week’s selloff pushed the index below the three-month trading range of SPX 6,800-7,000 that had held since late 2025, subsequently closing down 5% since mid-January. The conflict with Iran continues […]
Flat Index Masks Hidden Chaos
Overall price stability in the S&P 500 is masking one of the most unusual equity environments in recent years. While SPX has been roughly flat over the past month, the average constituent has moved 10.8% — a 99th percentile dispersion reading, as we discussed in our Thursday AM Founder’s Note. All signs point to increasing fragmentation beneath […]
The Market’s 0DTE Underbelly Is Exposed
Last week reminded us just how fast market stability can give way to volatility. After trading near all-time highs at 7,000, the S&P 500 fell 3% in just three sessions, closing Thursday at 6,798 amid weakness in software and crypto. Our last Sunday Newsletter focused specifically on how this type of fragility underscores today’s market. This […]
SPX Touches 7,000 and Cracks — What Makes This Market So Fragile?
Market Fragility in the Face of All-Time Highs As the S&P 500 pushes record highs, the options market continues to flash warning signals beneath the surface. Underlying risk from volatility discrepancies and index-equity correlation suggest an environment prone to vol spasms — similar to what we witnessed with Thursday’s (1/29) sharp selloff and reversal. These […]
Vanna Fuels Market Rally as Market Fears Subside
Last week began with fear dominating market sentiment: analysts widely attributed Tuesday’s 2% SPX selloff to Greenland worries and tariff threats. As we pointed out in last weekend’s newsletter, traders had begun hedging against downside risk as put skew increased and volatility premiums rose. However, the quick turnaround back to SPX 6,900 seemed to erase any […]