Last week began with fear dominating market sentiment: analysts widely attributed Tuesday’s 2% SPX selloff to Greenland worries and tariff threats. As we pointed out in last weekend’s newsletter, traders had begun hedging against downside risk as put skew increased and volatility premiums rose. However, the quick turnaround back to SPX 6,900 seemed to erase any […]
Market Analysis
Defensive Positioning Emerges as Market Rallies
Traders Turn Defensive In the Face of Market’s Climb SPX tested fresh all-time highs last week, with positive gamma providing guardrails for the broader market. In the face of headline noise—from criminal investigations into Powell to Iran-related escalation—the market absorbed every dip, with the 6,890 Risk Pivot level from Monday’s AM Founder’s Note holding firm. However, increasing put skew and […]
Vol Stays Quiet as SPX Reaches All-Time Highs
Strong 0DTE Support Lifts the Market to Record Highs The S&P 500 kicked off 2026 by grinding through a week of macro data releases to finish at fresh all-time highs on Friday. SPX closed at 6,966, up from the 6,902 open on Monday, after finding critical support in the 6,890–6,900 zone multiple times throughout the […]
Record 0DTE volume reshapes the S&P 500
Record 0DTE Volume in 2025 Has Changed the Game We wrapped up 2025 with the S&P 500 up 18% for the year—a solid result in the face of tariff headlines, global conflicts, and inflation concerns. One of the major options market stories of the past year has been the growing role of 0DTE options: same-day expiration […]
Subdued Volatility and the Setup Into Year-End
Subdued Vol Meets Negative Gamma Weakness in AI-related stocks dominated market headlines last week, most notably for Oracle and Broadcom. This pushed the market downward, before the rebound on Thursday and Friday. Despite the market trending down for three consecutive days, implied volatility remained surprisingly subdued: put skew remained average, and ATM implied volatility sat […]
FOMC Reset: Vol Crushes, Stocks Lift Higher
Last week began with quiet anticipation of Wednesday’s FOMC. When the Fed announced the 25 basis point rate cut and Treasury bill purchases, the reaction was immediate. Equities surged, with the SPX breaking out above our 6,845 Volatility Trigger to approach all-time-highs near the 6,900 resistance level. The options market had priced in meaningful event-related volatility surrounding FOMC, and […]
How the Options Market is Positioning for FOMC
Markets hovered near all-time highs last week as traders eagerly await next week’s FOMC. The SPX traded in a tight 6,800-6,900 range, while volatility compressed to multi-month lows: VIX dropped 15% this week to 15.4, experiencing some of the lowest values since September. This is a trend we’re watching closely: Softer demand for volatility (options) […]
FOMC in Focus After Market’s Thanksgiving Feast
Post-OPEX Dynamics Drive Thanksgiving Week Rally The shortened Thanksgiving holiday week delivered exactly what we outlined in our Monday morning Founder’s Note: a powerful post-OPEX rally driven by put option decay and volatility compression. The week marked a significant bullish pivot for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 rallying from 6,636 to 6,849—a gain of over […]
December Rate Cut? What the Options Market Is Signaling
Using Options to Evaluate Rate-Sensitive Names With last week bringing realized volatility to the highest levels seen in 6 months, the market has entered a highly reactive state. Market events and data releases each have the potential to change the outlook for direction and volatility—and the December 10 FOMC remains the biggest date on the […]
Crypto Winter or Santa Claus Rally: Which Comes Next?
Evaluating IBIT with Positional Analysis Crypto markets have faced serious selling pressure this past month, and last Friday’s sharp decline pushed Bitcoin to yearly lows near $80K. BTC is now on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022—down 22% over the past month and negative for the year. Using Positional Analysis, we can examine […]
