Last week began with quiet anticipation of Wednesday’s FOMC. When the Fed announced the 25 basis point rate cut and Treasury bill purchases, the reaction was immediate. Equities surged, with the SPX breaking out above our 6,845 Volatility Trigger to approach all-time-highs near the 6,900 resistance level. The options market had priced in meaningful event-related volatility surrounding FOMC, and […]
Market Analysis
How the Options Market is Positioning for FOMC
Markets hovered near all-time highs last week as traders eagerly await next week’s FOMC. The SPX traded in a tight 6,800-6,900 range, while volatility compressed to multi-month lows: VIX dropped 15% this week to 15.4, experiencing some of the lowest values since September. This is a trend we’re watching closely: Softer demand for volatility (options) […]
FOMC in Focus After Market’s Thanksgiving Feast
Post-OPEX Dynamics Drive Thanksgiving Week Rally The shortened Thanksgiving holiday week delivered exactly what we outlined in our Monday morning Founder’s Note: a powerful post-OPEX rally driven by put option decay and volatility compression. The week marked a significant bullish pivot for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 rallying from 6,636 to 6,849—a gain of over […]
December Rate Cut? What the Options Market Is Signaling
Using Options to Evaluate Rate-Sensitive Names With last week bringing realized volatility to the highest levels seen in 6 months, the market has entered a highly reactive state. Market events and data releases each have the potential to change the outlook for direction and volatility—and the December 10 FOMC remains the biggest date on the […]
Crypto Winter or Santa Claus Rally: Which Comes Next?
Evaluating IBIT with Positional Analysis Crypto markets have faced serious selling pressure this past month, and last Friday’s sharp decline pushed Bitcoin to yearly lows near $80K. BTC is now on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022—down 22% over the past month and negative for the year. Using Positional Analysis, we can examine […]
Negative Gamma Fuels Extreme Volatility
There’s really only one way to summarize the past few days: “What a week!” Markets delivered some of the most extreme intraday swings of the year, culminating in Thursday’s violent selloff and Friday’s equally dramatic reversal—one of the sharpest two-day sequences we’ve seen in 2025. As of Thursday, the S&P 500 was on track for the worst […]
All Eyes on NVDA as Volatility Spikes
From Market Euphoria to “Elevator Down” Markets experienced a dramatic reversal last week. Monday began with bullish momentum after the government shutdown deal was reached, yet by Thursday the market was facing intense selling pressure. Notably, SPX broke below the critical 6,800 risk pivot level we emphasized daily in our Founder’s Notes, triggering higher volatility. As […]
November ’25 OPEX Effect
Slides are available here. Nvidia, AI, and Why the Market Feels So Much Worse Than It Looks In this episode, they break down why:
SPX Down, Vol Up: What Makes Last Week’s Selloff Different
The market experienced a meaningful shift this week as SPX declined nearly 3% from the all-time highs of October 29, closing Friday at 6,729. What began as fluid, transient price action evolved into more concerning market dynamics by the end of the week. The week’s volatility behavior differed markedly from the tariff-induced selloff on October […]
The Market’s Balancing Act: Euphoria vs. Anxiety
Last week, SPX tested all-time highs at 6,920 while also reaching lows near the key gamma strike of 6,815 — a journey that balanced euphoria and anxiety. Wednesday morning began with a major risk alert from our AM Founder’s Note, which was validated over the next two days: the combination of the “spot up, vol up” […]
