S&P 500 Stock Market Gamma Trading Levels Based on Options Open Interest
SpotGamma believes traders should add long exposure via NDX/QQQ calls due to a potential rally in equities through mid terms which would couple with a potential increase in volatility. Both higher equity prices and higher volatility benefit call positions.
We prefer the tech-heavy NDX vs SPX due to a “diversification drag” the S&P500 may experience.
A 25bp hike is overwhelmingly expected on September 16, which makes the dot plot the real surprise vector. A look at what the options market is pricing, where the big volatility hedges are showing up, why September VIX settles before the decision, and why Friday’s expiration may be the bigger structural event.
Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, joined tastylive Tuesday to explain why S&P 500 realized volatility sits at 2020 lows ahead of FOMC and a huge OPEX.
Markets are pricing a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike at the September 16 FOMC, and August CPI is the last inflation print the Fed sees before deciding. A look at what the option market is implying, the gamma setup into Friday’s expiration, and the three scenarios that matter.
Over the past several weeks, we have consistently highlighted the market’s growing fragility. From the negative gamma “trapdoor” to the destabilizing impact of geopolitical shocks, the message has been clear: this is no longer a range-bound market. Last week confirmed those warnings, as the S&P 500 is down nearly 9% from all-time highs. On Thursday and Friday, traders […]
The options market has just cleared one of the largest structural events of the quarter, as Friday’s OPEX saw nearly $1.4 trillion in delta notional expire for the S&P 500. Because significant positions have now rolled off from the March expiration, the market has lost an important stabilizing force just as macro pressures begin to build. […]
Market Summary The market is entering a critical window where VIX expiration, quarterly options expiration, crude oil, and the JP Morgan collar trade are all colliding at once. The core argument is simple: implied volatility remains elevated while realized volatility has stayed unusually muted, and that mismatch may not last much longer. If oil continues […]
Fragility, Risk, and Potential Vol Reset As the S&P 500 enters OPEX week, we echo the same theme of the past few weeks: this market remains fragile. Last week’s selloff pushed the index below the three-month trading range of SPX 6,800-7,000 that had held since late 2025, subsequently closing down 5% since mid-January. The conflict with Iran continues […]
The VVIX measures the expected volatility of the VIX itself — giving options traders a window into hedging demand, dealer positioning, and what the market is pricing before volatility materializes. SpotGamma’s forward return data shows
what elevated VVIX levels have historically meant for SPY and VIX.
Overall price stability in the S&P 500 is masking one of the most unusual equity environments in recent years. While SPX has been roughly flat over the past month, the average constituent has moved 10.8% — a 99th percentile dispersion reading, as we discussed in our Thursday AM Founder’s Note. All signs point to increasing fragmentation beneath […]
