Several major tech earnings missed last week, sparking the market’s worst selloff since June. Disappointing results and swelling AI capex concerns drove the Nasdaq 100 down 6% in two days, with the S&P dropping 1.8% on Friday alone. The Binance hack on Thursday added more fuel to the fire. Traders are now left wondering if […]
AI trade unwind
Dip Buyers Step into the AI Unwind
Will the Selloff Continue? The market began to waver at the end of last week, with the S&P 500 down nearly 2% and Nasdaq dropping 3% from mid-week highs. We noted a spike in MAGS put buying and a rising put/call ratio in our previous Sunday Newsletter as big tech earnings approached. Then, our October […]
The New Normal in Volatility Takes Shape
The final week of July proved to be quite dramatic. An FOMC decision, PCE inflation data, and the Super Bowl of Q2 earnings all took place over the span of just 2 days, with companies representing 36% of the S&P 500 by weight reporting results last week. The results were extreme: U.S. 30-year treasury yields […]
Big Tech Earnings and FOMC Collide
The Dispersion Unwind Arrives Last week, we noted in our pre-market Founder’s Note that markets were skating on thin ice. In addition to growing macro risks, COR1M had collapsed below 8 signaling extreme dispersion between index and single-stock volatility. After our Risk Pivot level was breached on Thursday, the growing negative gamma environment amplified the […]
Will the AI Unwind Finally Spill Over?
Last week delivered a string of constructive catalysts that supported the market through Thursday. Inflation ran cooler than expected, bank earnings impressed, retail sales beat, and ASML and TSM offered encouraging commentary towards semiconductor demand. While hostilities with Iran escalated, the market remained quite stable until Friday’s 1% drop following the Kimi-3 announcement. The stability […]
The AI Trade Unwinds
Wall Street’s historic weekly winning streak came to an abrupt halt last week. On Friday, a sharp NFP report drove the S&P 500 down over 2.6%, leading to a sharp AI selloff and rising bond yields. Adding fuel to the fire, the market now appears to be pricing in a rate hike by the end […]