A 25bp hike is overwhelmingly expected on September 16, which makes the dot plot the real surprise vector. A look at what the options market is pricing, where the big volatility hedges are showing up, why September VIX settles before the decision, and why Friday’s expiration may be the bigger structural event.
implied volatility
Gamma Guy: S&P 500 Realized Volatility Is the Lowest Since 2020
Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, joined tastylive Tuesday to explain why S&P 500 realized volatility sits at 2020 lows ahead of FOMC and a huge OPEX.
Hedging Against a Volatility Spike: VIX Calls vs. SPX Puts
A series of major market catalysts arrive next week: the FOMC rate decision, VIX Expiration, and September Triple Witching OPEX. Options positioning suggests that institutions are already paying up for event protection. Over the past two weeks, we have observed notable VIX hedging activity in our daily FlowPatrol reports. This included several particularly significant positions: […]
September OPEX Options Positioning: Why 7,600 Is the Line | The OPEX Effect
Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joined Excess Returns Thursday on September OPEX options positioning, the 7,600 gamma line, oil-rate risk and cheap tech vol.
S&P 500 Negative Gamma Below 7,600 — Brent Kochuba on tastylive
Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, joined tastylive Thursday to map S&P 500 negative gamma below 7,600, a lifting vol surface and Oracle’s call skew.
Gamma Guy with tastylive: Options Positioning Pins the Index While Tech Names Make Moves
Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, broke down September OPEX positioning, 0DTE flows and cheap IWM hedges on tastylive Tuesday, September 8.
AI Infrastructure Runs Hot into September
August closed with robust corporate earnings, and nowhere was that clearer than in the AI trade stocks. Last week’s standout report came from Dell (DELL), which jumped 16% after beating estimates and raising guidance. Dell is a leading server provider for AI data center infrastructure. Its results echoed what Nvidia (NVDA) showed a week earlier: […]
Doves Fly into August Jobs Report
Friday’s 8:30 a.m. ET Employment Situation report has the potential to be the biggest bond-market catalyst since Jackson Hole, yet the options market is pricing a contained move. A look at SPX term structure, fixed strike vol, and dealer gamma ahead of the print.
AI Stock Options Reset From a Record Peak: Brent Kochuba on tastylive
Brent Kochuba on tastylive: AI stock options have reset from record dispersion, and the positioning no longer rewards shorting tech.
Software Earnings Reignite Risk Appetite
Market sentiment was mixed last week following NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole. While NVDA’s solid outlook pushed the market to within inches of all-time highs, Warsh’s hawkish tone seemed to increase the probability of a September rate hike. Throughout August, the S&P 500 has closed in a narrow 2.6% band (SPX 7,600 – 7,800). The […]