The S&P 500 delivered a high octane four-day run last week, establishing all-time highs with a 6% rise from weekly lows. Shifting interest rate expectations, easing Middle East tensions, and strong corporate earnings powered the dramatic rally. The sharp surge brought out notable divergences across the tech space. Software outperformed the broader market, with strong […]
realized volatility
Big Tech Earnings and FOMC Collide
The Dispersion Unwind Arrives Last week, we noted in our pre-market Founder’s Note that markets were skating on thin ice. In addition to growing macro risks, COR1M had collapsed below 8 signaling extreme dispersion between index and single-stock volatility. After our Risk Pivot level was breached on Thursday, the growing negative gamma environment amplified the […]
Will the AI Unwind Finally Spill Over?
Last week delivered a string of constructive catalysts that supported the market through Thursday. Inflation ran cooler than expected, bank earnings impressed, retail sales beat, and ASML and TSM offered encouraging commentary towards semiconductor demand. While hostilities with Iran escalated, the market remained quite stable until Friday’s 1% drop following the Kimi-3 announcement. The stability […]
Volatility Approaches Record Lows — Is It Priced Too Cheap?
The S&P 500 spent early July grinding higher with sector rotation quietly forming beneath a calm index. As SPX price action remained relatively muted over the past week, implied volatility dropped to near-record lows as of Friday: IV for contracts expiring next week now sit in the 6-10% range. Regardless of any directional bias for […]
Stock & Bond Correlations: “No Crying in Correlation”
Alpha Exchange
Implied Volatility Reading in the SPX & VIX
Brent Kochuba, Founder of SpotGamma, joins Imran Lakha of Options-Insights to talk about the current volatility readings in the SPX and VIX. This covers both realized and implied volatility which are shifting ahead of a large options expiration.
Gamma vs Realized Volatility
Gamma appears to give traders an edge in predicting market volatility. Here we show the last few months of historical volatility as a quick method to back up this point. Volatility does not imply a direction in the market, just expanded movement. Often this is correlated with market drops, but also rapid rises as seen […]
