June lived up to its reputation as a volatile month with last week’s market drawdown. As we turn the page into July, the market now appears to be recalibrating positioning. Recent turbulence has driven capital rotation out of crowded tech leadership, and we now look for opportunities in alternative pockets of the market. In our […]
SPX term structure
Vol Sellers Shrug off a Hawkish Fed
Despite a hawkish Fed rattling equities midweek, the market easily and quickly retraced any lost ground by Thursday. With June OPEX now behind us and implied volatility reset toward recent lows, there is a soft feeling of “what’s next?” for the S&P 500 until earnings season ramps up next month. The June FOMC meeting on […]
Triple Witching + FOMC Fuels Volatility Risk
The market delivered several volatile sessions last week as traders navigated Wednesday’s CPI inflation report, Friday’s massive SpaceX IPO (SPCX), and a mix of Iran-driven headlines throughout. Last Sunday, we wrote about how extreme options positioning into major catalysts could spark the exact volatile market behavior observed over the past several days. Tuesday’s wild 200-point […]
The AI Trade Unwinds
Wall Street’s historic weekly winning streak came to an abrupt halt last week. On Friday, a sharp NFP report drove the S&P 500 down over 2.6%, leading to a sharp AI selloff and rising bond yields. Adding fuel to the fire, the market now appears to be pricing in a rate hike by the end […]
June Catalysts Threaten a Volatility Spasm — How Are Traders Positioning?
The S&P 500 has posted fresh record highs for the ninth straight week. Tech and semiconductor earnings fueled much of the recent surge, with SNOW climbing 52%, DELL gaining 57%, and MU surging 28% within one week. As we move into June, stretched positioning now meets a cluster of major catalysts. Three upcoming events will […]
Record Highs and Thinning Hedges
Last week, the S&P 500 closed its eighth straight weekly gain — the longest streak since 2023. As the rally continues to achieve record highs, underlying options positioning has evolved meaningfully since March. Most importantly, the market has quietly shed much of the protective hedging that was in place just two months ago. A dense […]