Last week delivered a string of constructive catalysts that supported the market through Thursday. Inflation ran cooler than expected, bank earnings impressed, retail sales beat, and ASML and TSM offered encouraging commentary towards semiconductor demand. While hostilities with Iran escalated, the market remained quite stable until Friday’s 1% drop following the Kimi-3 announcement. The stability […]
semiconductor stocks
NVDA earnings vs. a stretched S&P 500
For the fourth consecutive week, the S&P 500 has struck records highs. This week’s breach of SPX 7,500 even arrived in the face of hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints — data that historically would have triggered a meaningful selloff. The tone shifted somewhat on Friday, as the rally lost steam into monthly OPEX. The week […]
The AI Trade Roars — But for How Long?
Last week, strong earnings pushed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to — once again — achieve all-time highs. Through the fast and furious AI-driven rally of the past 6 weeks, SPX has climbed 15% while NDX has surged 28%. The market’s pace of advance is well beyond historical norms, reflecting an exceptionally aggressive repositioning […]
Quiet Indices, Roaring Stocks: the Volatility Dispersion Trade
Robust Mag7 and semiconductor earnings have reinforced investor confidence in the AI trade, lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh highs. Index implied volatility (IV) — the options market’s expectation of future price movement — reset to its lowest level in three months. Despite the backdrop of the Iran conflict and heightened oil prices, […]
