Trader Doug Pless recently played a common setup we see in the HIRO data. HIRO can be quite valuable in helping traders identify a turn in trend, not only on declines but also on strong rallies. Below is a chart of MSFT from Friday, and you can see that the stock (black line) traded sharply […]
Market Analysis
There Are Times When Nothing Is Happening
The goal of HIRO is to alert users as to when options order flow may be impacting a stocks price. Equally important is knowing when options are not involved! A member asked us today about NVDA’s flow, and our response was “there’s nothing going on!”. This can be seen by the fact that the HIRO […]
Using HIRO with SPY to Confirm Reversals
This morning we had a volatile opening, with SPY ripping ~$2 higher before reversing sharply (black line). The HIRO signal (purple) did not move up along with SPY on that opening, suggesting the options market wasn’t “buying” the move. After that opening rip, SPY sold sharply lower to $443. It was on those lows that […]
The March ’22 Option-less Rally
At the beginning of March with the market near ’22 lows, SpotGamma flagged two catalysts that could spark a rally. The first was the March 16th FOMC and the second was a large, put heavy OPEX (go here to listen to our forecast posted on 3/11/22). Entering into this time frame, our analyses suggested options […]
Barclays Suspends VXX & OIL Issuance
Because of this OIL/VXX may start trading significantly above their asset based IV price. Likely will become very difficult to short these products & without shares to short Authorized Participants can’t do arbitrage operations they typical run to drive price down to IV Price. https://t.co/1lacpxhnVf — Vance Harwood (@6_Figure_Invest) March 14, 2022 From BusinessWire: Barclays […]
Brent Calls for Market Rally Ahead of March OPEX on the Contrarian Investor Podcast
Brent, Founder of SpotGamma, was on the Contrarian Investor Podcast this week. There he discussed how options hedging may impact stock prices, and why he thinks markets may rally into next weeks options expiration (3/18/22). For full audio-only, go here to listen.
HIRO In Action: COIN
Today we noted strong call buying to start the day in COIN (Coinbase). This call buying is shown below, in orange, in the form of estimated hedging impact. The hedging impact, or HIRO signal, is tied to the right Y axis. The signal suggests that as traders buy calls, market makers are likely selling those […]
The Sell-off For The NASDAQ May Not Be Over Yet
The following is a guest post courtesy of Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management. With the Fed pivoting to a very hawkish stance starting in 2022, the Nasdaq has witnessed a dramatic decline of nearly 18% since peaking in November. The drop may only continue in the weeks ahead as market participants try to figure out the potential […]
Put Sellers & The Incredible Feb 24th Intraday Reversal
On Thursday 2/24 the market opened down nearly 2.5% on news that Russia had invaded Ukraine. Off of that opening low, the S&P500 staged a remarkable 4% intraday rally, moving from a low of 4114 to a high of 4294. So, what caused this rally? Short covering. Below we’ve posted our HIRO chart of SPY […]
Trade Analysis: ES Futures (7 February 2022)
The following is a guest post from Doug Pless. When I plan to trade futures, I begin my morning preparation by reading the SpotGamma AM Founder’s Note. For ES futures, I note gamma levels, the SpotGamma Imp. 1 Day Move, the SpotGamma Gamma Index, and Gamma Notional for SPX and SPY. I also look up […]