Market sentiment was mixed last week following NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole. While NVDA’s solid outlook pushed the market to within inches of all-time highs, Warsh’s hawkish tone seemed to increase the probability of a September rate hike. Throughout August, the S&P 500 has closed in a narrow 2.6% band (SPX 7,600 – 7,800). The […]
forward implied volatility
Volatility Has Compressed. What Happens Next?
The S&P 500 pulled back slightly last week, and the market’s recent volatility compression phase appears ready for a reset. With earnings season largely over, both index and single stock volatility have dropped from the elevated levels that prevailed earlier this summer. Our pre-market Founder’s Note on Friday explained how substantial short-options positions cleared with […]
Geopolitical Risk Hits a Fragile Market
Markets entered last week on fragile footing. In our previous Sunday note, we emphasized how negative dealer gamma, extreme put skew, and heavy 0DTE options activity set the market up for a trapdoor scenario. This created a market structure vulnerable to sharp drops and spikes in volatility, as we saw play out last week. The dramatic […]
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