Markets are pricing a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike at the September 16 FOMC, and August CPI is the last inflation print the Fed sees before deciding. A look at what the option market is implying, the gamma setup into Friday’s expiration, and the three scenarios that matter.
gamma
Oracle Earnings Preview: $638B AI Backlog vs. an 11.5% Options Implied Move
Oracle reports fiscal Q1 2027 after the close on Thursday, September 10. The September 11 options are pricing an unusually large move, dealer gamma is tilted positive below current prices, and CPI lands before Friday’s open.
Doves Fly into August Jobs Report
Friday’s 8:30 a.m. ET Employment Situation report has the potential to be the biggest bond-market catalyst since Jackson Hole, yet the options market is pricing a contained move. A look at SPX term structure, fixed strike vol, and dealer gamma ahead of the print.
Broadcom is the Next AI Focused Catalyst
Fundamentals Broadcom (AVGO) is the most important remaining AI hardware earnings report of the week, providing investors with a different read on AI spending compared to Nvidia. Nvidia tells us about demand for general-purpose GPUs, while Broadcom tells us about custom AI accelerators, networking, hyperscaler silicon programs, and the increasingly competitive threat to Nvidia from […]
Jackson Hole 2026: What the Options Market Expects
SPY forward IV prices Jackson Hole as a non-event, but CTAs are stretched short Treasuries and SPX gamma flips near 7780 — an asymmetric setup into Friday.
December Rate Cut? What the Options Market Is Signaling
Using Options to Evaluate Rate-Sensitive Names With last week bringing realized volatility to the highest levels seen in 6 months, the market has entered a highly reactive state. Market events and data releases each have the potential to change the outlook for direction and volatility—and the December 10 FOMC remains the biggest date on the […]
Crypto Winter or Santa Claus Rally: Which Comes Next?
Evaluating IBIT with Positional Analysis Crypto markets have faced serious selling pressure this past month, and last Friday’s sharp decline pushed Bitcoin to yearly lows near $80K. BTC is now on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022—down 22% over the past month and negative for the year. Using Positional Analysis, we can examine […]
The Sell-off For The NASDAQ May Not Be Over Yet
The following is a guest post courtesy of Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management. With the Fed pivoting to a very hawkish stance starting in 2022, the Nasdaq has witnessed a dramatic decline of nearly 18% since peaking in November. The drop may only continue in the weeks ahead as market participants try to figure out the potential […]
‘Call AAA’: Santa Claus Is Having Sleigh Troubles
Through an options market lens, the following text will add color to some recent market movements.
New Look: Total Gamma (Absolute Gamma) Charts
We’ve upgraded our Total Gamma AKA Absolute Gamma Charts. These charts display the total gamma by strike for calls (reflected as a positive gamma bar) and puts (shown as a negative gamma bar). Additionally we’ve added a feature which shows how much of that strike’s gamma is positioned in the next expiration (light grey). This […]