from Heisenberg: you can see when gamma is large and positive the market moves much less than when gamma is large and negative.
gamma
Saudi Oil Attack Options Gamma
Here is a quick snapshot after the Saudi Oil attack – options gamma is still quite long with over $1bn long gamma per point in the S&P500. This may have had an effect on muting or “deleveraging” the reaction to the news about the Saudi Oil attack. There was a very large move in crude […]
Pre Open Gamma Snapshot 8/26/19
SpotGamma Model Outlook for today using a futures reference price of 2870. Dealers are short a healthy amount of gamma meaning they are going to fuel the market move at open. A short gamma position means a higher market means dealers will start buying and if the market drops at open they will sell along […]
Gamma Driven VIX Drop
There was quite a large move down in the VIX overnight (8/20/19) and Nomura claims that was due in part to the gamma around a large VIX position. This gamma driven VIX drop is apparently related to hedging around a large VIX position. When options decay this can effect the amount of hedging that a […]
Nomuras Analyst Jumping the Gamma Gun
Nomura published an updated gamma chart showing that options dealers are now “Long Gamma…likely insulating price-action”. Nomuras options gamma estimate of 0 at 2923 is essentially the same level as our “Volatility Trigger” which is 2920. The issue with their analysis is that appears to be jumping the gun. Zero and positive are not the […]
JPM Liquidity Rates & VIX Correlation
JPM says that liquidity disappears as VIX spikes. This seems to make intuitive sense. The fact that the VIX is higher means the market is pricing in larger moves which means dealers don’t want to get stuffed with large trades as the market rips through them. This chart doesn’t tell us what level this depth […]
Dealers Running Out of Gas 8/16/19
After a sharp rally this morning the S&P500 stands at ~2890. This is where dealers buying starts to soften up. You can see their volume profile in the chart below. They were strong buyers up to this level but we calculated 2891 as the level where their buying wanes and 2920 where they flip to […]
Dealer Futures Flow 8/14/19
Here is a chart estimating the futures action with the S&P500 at 2850. If markets head lower it looks like dealers will sell more futures, compounding the move down. The same works in a rally, but instead of selling those dealers will be buying. All this flips when/if the market moves over the VFLIP line […]