For the fourth consecutive week, the S&P 500 has struck records highs. This week’s breach of SPX 7,500 even arrived in the face of hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints — data that historically would have triggered a meaningful selloff. The tone shifted somewhat on Friday, as the rally lost steam into monthly OPEX. The week […]
call options
The AI Trade Roars — But for How Long?
Last week, strong earnings pushed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to — once again — achieve all-time highs. Through the fast and furious AI-driven rally of the past 6 weeks, SPX has climbed 15% while NDX has surged 28%. The market’s pace of advance is well beyond historical norms, reflecting an exceptionally aggressive repositioning […]
Quiet Indices, Roaring Stocks: the Volatility Dispersion Trade
Robust Mag7 and semiconductor earnings have reinforced investor confidence in the AI trade, lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh highs. Index implied volatility (IV) — the options market’s expectation of future price movement — reset to its lowest level in three months. Despite the backdrop of the Iran conflict and heightened oil prices, […]
How next week’s earnings could drive volatility
Markets pushed to fresh all-time highs this week, driven by continued strength in AI stocks. One of the notable stores was SMH (the semiconductor ETF) which surged over 30% this month to cap 168% gain in the past year. While euphoric spirits have recently prevailed, next week brings an event-heavy calendar that might shift the […]
The Hidden Mechanics Behind Last Week’s Rally
The S&P 500 has bounced back to record highs, closing decisively above 7,100 after Friday’s 1.2% rally. That marks a 12% rise from March lows in just under three weeks. In that same timeframe, volatility expectations have seemingly collapsed: VIX is down 40% since March 31, dropping from >30 to below 18. Crude oil has […]
How Changes in Interest Rates Impact Options Prices: A Comprehensive Guide to “RHO”
Understanding the dynamics of options pricing is essential for anyone delving into the world of options trading. Among the various factors affecting options prices, changes in interest rates play a significant role. In this article, we’ll break down the relationship between interest rates and options prices, and how to navigate this complex landscape. The Basics […]
HIRO In Action: COIN
Today we noted strong call buying to start the day in COIN (Coinbase). This call buying is shown below, in orange, in the form of estimated hedging impact. The hedging impact, or HIRO signal, is tied to the right Y axis. The signal suggests that as traders buy calls, market makers are likely selling those […]
