Like Haden warned us, based on ASDFG levels, on 7/31 markets broke under the VFLIP Volatility Indicator, triggering a market environment market by high volatility. As you can see that proved true with >10 days in a row with a >1% move. With a major options expiration at the end of the week there should […]
Market Analysis
SpotGamma Trading Levels Vs Nomura
Here is a report from Nomura compared to the same days market forecast from SpotGamma.com. Notice the “zero gamma” levels are the same in both reports at 2935 in the S&P500. We call the “zero gamma” level “volatility trigger”. Using this level can help forecast the level of stock market volatility. Under this market price […]
Nomura: Volatility Crush Market Options Gamma on CNBC
Nomura analyst on CNBC discussing how dealer gamma effects the equity market. He mentions the large open interest in the VIX (“50 Cent”) and how a volatility crush could spur an equity rally. This is because (as seen through the SpotGamma model) a drop in volatility forces dealers to rehedge through buying stocks. As the […]
Volatility Trigger INDICATOR KEEPING LID ON MARKET 8/9/19
SpotGamma calculates the market level at which options dealers gamma position flips from long to short. We call this the “VOLATILITY TRIGGER” indicator. Below this S&P500 price dealers trading can increase market volatility, and over this level their trading may damped volatility. You can see over the last two days the markets drove hard into […]
Stock Markets Gamma Squeeze 8/6/19
After several days of selling the S&P500 and other stock markets gamma squeeze higher. It appears to be a gamma squeeze play as options dealers were most likely forced to buy back short hedges. As implied volatility (e.g. VIX) goes down and put options are sold the delta of out of the money put options […]
SpotGamma Update 8/5/19
Our market model has dealers short gamma with the market below 2950. This means that dealers will push the market further in its prevailing direction. If the market is selling then dealers will push is lower. It also means that when the market snaps back up it will be a violent move.
Fed Day Market Move from a Gamma Perspective
Equity markets had an incredibly volatile day on 7/31/19 triggered by actions of the Federal Reserve. Its our view that the moves were exacerbated by the positioning of dealers in S&P 500 options. A quick wave of selling entered the markets just above 3000, pushing the market under our “volatility trigger” level of 2995. At […]