Traders Turn Defensive In the Face of Market’s Climb SPX tested fresh all-time highs last week, with positive gamma providing guardrails for the broader market. In the face of headline noise—from criminal investigations into Powell to Iran-related escalation—the market absorbed every dip, with the 6,890 Risk Pivot level from Monday’s AM Founder’s Note holding firm. However, increasing put skew and […]
FOMC
FOMC Reset: Vol Crushes, Stocks Lift Higher
Last week began with quiet anticipation of Wednesday’s FOMC. When the Fed announced the 25 basis point rate cut and Treasury bill purchases, the reaction was immediate. Equities surged, with the SPX breaking out above our 6,845 Volatility Trigger to approach all-time-highs near the 6,900 resistance level. The options market had priced in meaningful event-related volatility surrounding FOMC, and […]
December Rate Cut? What the Options Market Is Signaling
Using Options to Evaluate Rate-Sensitive Names With last week bringing realized volatility to the highest levels seen in 6 months, the market has entered a highly reactive state. Market events and data releases each have the potential to change the outlook for direction and volatility—and the December 10 FOMC remains the biggest date on the […]
The Oversold Stock Market Could See a Bounce
The following is a guest post courtesy of Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management. The S&P 500 has fallen by more than 10% in the past two weeks, and to say that it is due for a bounce may be an understatement. The combination of a 75 bps Fed rate hike and massive June quarterly options expiration resulted […]
The Fed Meeting May Spark The Next Stock Market Rally
The following is a guest post courtesy of Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management. Buy the Fed meeting. Sell the Fed minutes. It may be the name of the game for the stock market. At least since the start of 2022, the minutes have been a cause of concern for markets, while the FOMC meetings […]
Next Week’s Fed Meeting May Create Massive Moves In The Market
The following is a guest post courtesy of Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management. Stock market volatility has picked up, and it may only be starting. Investors are eagerly awaiting the next FOMC meeting on January 26 to try and gauge which way the Fed may choose to go in its fight with inflation. With […]
‘Call AAA’: Santa Claus Is Having Sleigh Troubles
Through an options market lens, the following text will add color to some recent market movements.
A Volatility Crush Is Masking An Unhealthy Stock Market
The following is a guest post courtesy of Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management. The S&P 500 finished the week ending September 24 up a mere 50 basis points, a tranquil week – on the surface. Volatility was fierce to start the week, a dynamic predicted by SpotGamma and shared with their subscribers last week. […]
This Might Not Be a September to Remember: Options Expiration + FOMC Risk
The following is a guest post courtesy of Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management. The September monthly options expiration, which also happens to be a quarterly quadruple witching, occurs just days before the next FOMC meeting. As noted previously, the market appears to be anxious about this upcoming meeting, and it is easy to understand why. The prospects […]
