Rate hike odds near 60% and a red day across bonds and equities. On Gamma Guy, Brent Kochuba breaks down why muted put demand, cheap implied volatility, and positive dealer gamma could keep a large selloff from materializing.
Market Analysis
Broadcom is the Next AI Focused Catalyst
Fundamentals Broadcom (AVGO) is the most important remaining AI hardware earnings report of the week, providing investors with a different read on AI spending compared to Nvidia. Nvidia tells us about demand for general-purpose GPUs, while Broadcom tells us about custom AI accelerators, networking, hyperscaler silicon programs, and the increasingly competitive threat to Nvidia from […]
Software Earnings Reignite Risk Appetite
Market sentiment was mixed last week following NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole. While NVDA’s solid outlook pushed the market to within inches of all-time highs, Warsh’s hawkish tone seemed to increase the probability of a September rate hike. Throughout August, the S&P 500 has closed in a narrow 2.6% band (SPX 7,600 – 7,800). The […]
Jackson Hole 2026: What the Options Market Expects
SPY forward IV prices Jackson Hole as a non-event, but CTAs are stretched short Treasuries and SPX gamma flips near 7780 — an asymmetric setup into Friday.
One Stock, 803 ETFs: Why Nvidia Earnings Impacts the Entire S&P 500
Brent Kochuba joined CNBC to discuss Nvidia’s earnings, Salesforce, and how options traders repositioned across bond ETFs after comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent.
NVDA Earnings: The Options Market May Be Underpricing This Move
NVDA reports Wednesday after the close with the options market pricing a 5.5% move — below its 7.4% average realized move over the last 12 quarters. Dealers are short gamma above $220, call skew sits at the 81st percentile, and a distorted term structure opens up a calendar spread setup.
Volatility Has Compressed. What Happens Next?
The S&P 500 pulled back slightly last week, and the market’s recent volatility compression phase appears ready for a reset. With earnings season largely over, both index and single stock volatility have dropped from the elevated levels that prevailed earlier this summer. Our pre-market Founder’s Note on Friday explained how substantial short-options positions cleared with […]
Another SpaceX Unlock, and Why $150 Still Caps the Stock
Roughly 300 million SpaceX shares came on the market Thursday, but no new stock was created and there is no dilution. The binding constraint on SPCX sits higher: call selling at and above spot has left dealers with positive gamma, making $150 the new ceiling.
Options Exchange Monitor — Week of August 15, 2026 (36 SEC notices, 2 CFTC, 0 EDGAR)
SpotGamma tracks structural and regulatory changes in the U.S. options market: SEC SRO rule filings, CFTC actions, and OCC clearing notices. This update summarizes what changed and why it matters for options traders. Executive Summary OCC STAN Methodology Update (Doc 2026-15928) — APPROVED: The OCC has received SEC approval to incorporate options-implied interest rates as […]
GEX Levels for SPY, QQQ, ES and NQ: Using Index Gamma in Any Product
How to use GEX levels when you trade SPY, QQQ, or ES/NQ futures: converting SPX and NDX gamma levels between products, why the structure transfers, and what changes for 0DTE and futures sessions.