A 25bp hike is overwhelmingly expected on September 16, which makes the dot plot the real surprise vector. A look at what the options market is pricing, where the big volatility hedges are showing up, why September VIX settles before the decision, and why Friday’s expiration may be the bigger structural event.
SPX
Gamma Guy: S&P 500 Realized Volatility Is the Lowest Since 2020
Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, joined tastylive Tuesday to explain why S&P 500 realized volatility sits at 2020 lows ahead of FOMC and a huge OPEX.
September OPEX Options Positioning: Why 7,600 Is the Line | The OPEX Effect
Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joined Excess Returns Thursday on September OPEX options positioning, the 7,600 gamma line, oil-rate risk and cheap tech vol.
S&P 500 Negative Gamma Below 7,600 — Brent Kochuba on tastylive
Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, joined tastylive Thursday to map S&P 500 negative gamma below 7,600, a lifting vol surface and Oracle’s call skew.
CPI Is the Catalyst. 7600 Is the Trade.
Markets are pricing a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike at the September 16 FOMC, and August CPI is the last inflation print the Fed sees before deciding. A look at what the option market is implying, the gamma setup into Friday’s expiration, and the three scenarios that matter.
Gamma Guy with tastylive: Options Positioning Pins the Index While Tech Names Make Moves
Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, broke down September OPEX positioning, 0DTE flows and cheap IWM hedges on tastylive Tuesday, September 8.
Jackson Hole 2026: What the Options Market Expects
SPY forward IV prices Jackson Hole as a non-event, but CTAs are stretched short Treasuries and SPX gamma flips near 7780 — an asymmetric setup into Friday.
How Resistance at SPX 7,470 Set Up a Full-Profit Short Call Spread
Understanding the prevailing gamma regime helps traders better anticipate price behavior for the names they trade. On June 9, SpotGamma’s TRACE heatmap showed positive gamma, indicating a lower-volatility, mean-reverting environment as SPX rallied. After HIRO confirmed rejection off a key level, traders aggressively sold calls and bought puts, forcing market makers to hedge by selling […]
How next week’s earnings could drive volatility
Markets pushed to fresh all-time highs this week, driven by continued strength in AI stocks. One of the notable stores was SMH (the semiconductor ETF) which surged over 30% this month to cap 168% gain in the past year. While euphoric spirits have recently prevailed, next week brings an event-heavy calendar that might shift the […]
The Hidden Mechanics Behind Last Week’s Rally
The S&P 500 has bounced back to record highs, closing decisively above 7,100 after Friday’s 1.2% rally. That marks a 12% rise from March lows in just under three weeks. In that same timeframe, volatility expectations have seemingly collapsed: VIX is down 40% since March 31, dropping from >30 to below 18. Crude oil has […]