Last week delivered a string of constructive catalysts that supported the market through Thursday. Inflation ran cooler than expected, bank earnings impressed, retail sales beat, and ASML and TSM offered encouraging commentary towards semiconductor demand. While hostilities with Iran escalated, the market remained quite stable until Friday’s 1% drop following the Kimi-3 announcement. The stability […]
options positioning
Volatility Approaches Record Lows — Is It Priced Too Cheap?
The S&P 500 spent early July grinding higher with sector rotation quietly forming beneath a calm index. As SPX price action remained relatively muted over the past week, implied volatility dropped to near-record lows as of Friday: IV for contracts expiring next week now sit in the 6-10% range. Regardless of any directional bias for […]
Passing the Baton: From Semis to Software?
The AI trade has been the story of the first half of 2026, and semiconductors have been the main characters. The sector now accounts for roughly 20% of the entire S&P 500 — a historically high concentration. As we covered in our previous newsletter, any meaningful profit-taking in this area brings up the important question […]
July’s Setup: Rotation and Repositioning
June lived up to its reputation as a volatile month with last week’s market drawdown. As we turn the page into July, the market now appears to be recalibrating positioning. Recent turbulence has driven capital rotation out of crowded tech leadership, and we now look for opportunities in alternative pockets of the market. In our […]