The following is a guest post courtesy of Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management. Stock market volatility has picked up, and it may only be starting. Investors are eagerly awaiting the next FOMC meeting on January 26 to try and gauge which way the Fed may choose to go in its fight with inflation. With […]
SPX
Trade Analysis: ES Futures (29 December 2021)
The following is a guest post from Doug Pless. When I plan to trade futures, I begin my morning preparation by reading the SpotGamma AM Founder’s Note. For ES futures, I note gamma levels, the SpotGamma Imp. 1 Day Move, the SpotGamma Gamma Index, and Gamma Notional for SPX and SPY. I also look up […]
Trading ES Futures Using SpotGamma Levels and Vanna Model
The following is a guest post from Doug Pless. As I discussed previously, I begin my morning preparation by reading the SpotGamma AM Report when I plan to trade futures. For ES futures, I note gamma levels, the SpotGamma Index, and Gamma Notional for SPX and SPY. The SpotGamma Gamma Index is a proprietary measurement […]
SPX Skew Nears All Time Highs
As per Bloomberg, Skew (which measures the price of calls vs puts) can often spike when investors are concerned about market risk. Puts will be in higher demand than calls and this moves the skew measurement higher. Currently skew is very high due to a slew of events in the next week: FOMC, BREXIT vote, […]
Notes From 8/24/2015 Crash
Monday August 24th 2015 was a memorable day and it seemed like a good idea for a quick review given how much the current market seems to be trading. This is not a prediction for a market crash. There were a litany of reasons credited with causing the crash ( go here to see). Markets […]
FED, TRUMP, Gamma Trap: Crazy Trading Day 8/23/19
Fed gave a speech that was “volatility dampening” at 10AM. Trump didn’t like what the Fed had to say so he started tweet-trashing the Fed and China triggering a “gamma trap“. Stock markets were just at the volatility trigger level of 2920 (black horizontal line) so the gap down flipped the trigger and dealers were […]
Gamma Driven VIX Drop
There was quite a large move down in the VIX overnight (8/20/19) and Nomura claims that was due in part to the gamma around a large VIX position. This gamma driven VIX drop is apparently related to hedging around a large VIX position. When options decay this can effect the amount of hedging that a […]
Gamma Market From 8/16/19
Volatility will continue to reign until (if) the market recaptures 2920. There is a ton of fuel ready to burn and one headline (or tweet) will send the market flying. The only recommendation that is safe here is to not sell any options, being short volatility is very dangerous here, as a >3% rally is […]
Dealers Running Out of Gas 8/16/19
After a sharp rally this morning the S&P500 stands at ~2890. This is where dealers buying starts to soften up. You can see their volume profile in the chart below. They were strong buyers up to this level but we calculated 2891 as the level where their buying wanes and 2920 where they flip to […]
Dealer Futures Flow 8/14/19
Here is a chart estimating the futures action with the S&P500 at 2850. If markets head lower it looks like dealers will sell more futures, compounding the move down. The same works in a rally, but instead of selling those dealers will be buying. All this flips when/if the market moves over the VFLIP line […]
