We’ve been tracking very high levels of call gamma the last several weeks that has recently stalled as we’ve hit heavy resistance around 3250 (blue arrow in chart below). During the last several days the zero gamma flip point has moved higher to ~3185 as you can see (green arrow): Iran has started launching missiles, […]
Market Analysis
Nomura Gamma Report 1/7/20
Here is an updated Nomura gamma snapshot to compare vs ours. Note we both have gamma flip at ~3185 with peak gamma around 3275. He also sees 3250 as a “pin” much as we’ve shown in subscriber reports. Thanks to Heisenberg report. “And the same song remains—SPX Dealer ‘Gamma flip’ level is meaningfully below market”, […]
Stock Market Depth of Book: Liquidity vs Liquidity “Quality”
CME posted an interesting analysis called “Alternative Liquidity Measures” about volumes and depth of book. Their view is that liquidity doesn’t disappear during crisis times. The central argument is something along the lines of: “How can liquidity be worse if volumes skyrocket during market drops?” And that is actually a solid point. Yeah, you can […]
Expiration Is About Deltas
Much talk focuses on options market gamma and changes in gamma around expiration. But what may be the real catalyst around OPEX is a change in deltas, not gammas. When options expiration occurs (especially a large one like December) options are closed, expire or rolled. You therefore can have large positions change, which can cause […]
Nomuras Gamma Model 12/23/19
We like to post Nomuras model snapshot here to compare against ours. Our volatility neutral indicator is lower, but the top matches. Some of this may be explained by Nomura combining SPY and SPX.
Options Market Gamma Theory is All About Volume
Options market gamma numbers proliferate the market but its important to understand what exactly those numbers mean. Yes, positive gamma may indicate lower stock volatility. And when gamma flips from positive to negative that may indicate higher volatility. But the actual gamma number itself is an estimate of how much stock dealers will have to […]
BusinessInsider.com Talks Gamma
A good primer on market gamma from BI: So why do markets move at all if gamma is, like in this example, the big decelerator? Because it depends who owns it. Market makers use their gamma because they must. There is nothing worse than sitting on a position and bleeding white over time as your […]
Options Model Shows Shift Starting
December is always a large options expiration as we have large open interest and a SPY dividend payment. Because of all of this the expiration has the potential to mark turning points in the market as large positions are closed, roll or expire. 3200 has been a key level the last week with major options […]
Why Dec ’19’s Large Open Interest Could Cause Volatility
December OPEX has a many strikes that have large open interest (OI). For calls there are many in the money strikes as you can see in the grid below with OI greater than 20k or 40k – the 3000k strike has 125k contracts. There is large size in puts as well, but these are currently […]
SPX Skew Nears All Time Highs
As per Bloomberg, Skew (which measures the price of calls vs puts) can often spike when investors are concerned about market risk. Puts will be in higher demand than calls and this moves the skew measurement higher. Currently skew is very high due to a slew of events in the next week: FOMC, BREXIT vote, […]